The receipts
Paper stakes, real timestamps, real resolutions. Wins and losses both on the page — check any line against the market yourself.
The June 29 board, scored
published 2026-06-29 · scored 7/2/202648–43
record (w–l)
53%
hit rate
+$7,660
p&l @ $1k/pick
91/145
resolved
calibration — what we claimed vs what happened
claimed 30-34%realized 25%n=24
claimed 35-39%realized 27%n=11
claimed 40-49%realized 50%n=4
claimed 85-89%realized 82%n=11
claimed 90-94%realized 89%n=27
claimed 95-100%realized 67%n=6
| market | side | entry | our read | result | p&l @$1k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners?Kalshi · price-only | 12+ corners (NO) | 79¢ | 87.9% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| 7+ corners?Kalshi · price-only | 7+ corners (YES) | 82¢ | 88.5% | WIN | +$220 |
| Chicago WS vs Baltimore Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 5.5 runs scored (YES) | 82¢ | 89.9% | WIN | +$220 |
| Cincinnati vs Milwaukee Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 5.5 runs scored (YES) | 79¢ | 87.2% | WIN | +$266 |
| Detroit vs New York Y Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 4.5 runs scored (YES) | 85¢ | 91.4% | WIN | +$176 |
| Los Angeles A vs Seattle Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 4.5 runs scored (YES) | 84¢ | 89.6% | WIN | +$190 |
| Los Angeles D vs A's Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 6.5 runs scored (YES) | 84¢ | 92% | WIN | +$190 |
| Miami vs Colorado Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 6.5 runs scored (YES) | 85¢ | 88% | WIN | +$176 |
| Miami vs Colorado Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 7.5 runs scored (YES) | 82¢ | 91% | WIN | +$220 |
| Minnesota vs Houston Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 5.5 runs scored (YES) | 81¢ | 86.5% | WIN | +$235 |
| San Diego vs Chicago C Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 7.5 runs scored (YES) | 79¢ | 87.8% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Texas vs Cleveland Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 4.5 runs scored (YES) | 83¢ | 90% | WIN | +$205 |
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Bosnia and Herzegovina advances (NO) | 84¢ | 92% | WIN | +$190 |
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | USA advances (YES) | 84¢ | 92% | WIN | +$190 |
| Washington vs Boston Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 5.5 runs scored (YES) | 79¢ | 88.1% | WIN | +$266 |
| Will over 1.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 1.5 goals scored (YES) | 81¢ | 91.3% | WIN | +$235 |
| Will over 3.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 3.5 goals scored (NO) | 78¢ | 87.2% | WIN | +$282 |
| Will over 4.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 4.5 goals scored (NO) | 83¢ | 92% | WIN | +$205 |
| 11+ corners?Kalshi · price-only | 11+ corners (YES) | 21¢ | 30.6% | WIN | +$3,762 |
| 12+ corners?Kalshi · price-only | 12+ corners (YES) | 22¢ | 32% | WIN | +$3,545 |
| 12+ corners?Kalshi · price-only | 12+ corners (YES) | 26¢ | 36.5% | WIN | +$2,846 |
| Chicago WS vs Baltimore Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 12.5 runs scored (YES) | 24¢ | 33.6% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Chicago WS vs Baltimore Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 6.5 runs scored (NO) | 25¢ | 34.6% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Cincinnati vs Milwaukee Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 5.5 runs scored (NO) | 22¢ | 31.4% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goalsKalshi · price-only | Cody Gakpo: 1+ (YES) | 26¢ | 36.7% | WIN | +$2,846 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez: 7+ strikeouts?Kalshi · price-only | Eduardo Rodriguez: 7+ (YES) | 22¢ | 30.7% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsKalshi · price-only | Erling Haaland: 2+ (YES) | 21¢ | 31.5% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsKalshi · price-only | Florian Wirtz: 1+ (YES) | 25¢ | 36% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Leroy Sane: 1+ goalsKalshi · price-only | Leroy Sane: 1+ (YES) | 23¢ | 33.6% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Miami vs Colorado Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 15.5 runs scored (YES) | 24¢ | 33.3% | WIN | +$3,167 |
| Raul Jimenez: 1+ goalsKalshi · price-only | Raul Jimenez: 1+ (YES) | 25¢ | 34.9% | WIN | +$3,000 |
| San Diego vs Chicago C Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 7.5 runs scored (NO) | 22¢ | 31.9% | WIN | +$3,545 |
| San Francisco vs Arizona Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 12.5 runs scored (YES) | 24¢ | 33.3% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Shota Imanaga: 7+ strikeouts?Kalshi · price-only | Shota Imanaga: 7+ (YES) | 24¢ | 32.5% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Washington vs Boston Total Runs?Kalshi · price-only | Over 5.5 runs scored (NO) | 22¢ | 32.2% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will over 1.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 1.5 goals scored (NO) | 20¢ | 31.2% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will over 1.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 1.5 goals scored (NO) | 23¢ | 31.6% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will over 3.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 3.5 goals scored (YES) | 23¢ | 33.3% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will over 4.5 goals be scored?Kalshi · price-only | Reg Time: Over 4.5 goals scored (YES) | 19¢ | 30.2% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Under | 28¢ | 38% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Under | 25¢ | 34.1% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Over | 28¢ | 37.6% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Under | 33¢ | 47.4% | WIN | +$2,077 |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Under | 21¢ | 36.7% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvancePolymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Paraguay | 14¢ | 31% | WIN | +$6,407 |
| Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Over | 31¢ | 40.9% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Spread: Germany (-2.5)Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Germany | 26¢ | 34.8% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Spread: Norway (-1.5)Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Norway | 23¢ | 33.9% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 27¢ | 35.9% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 18¢ | 32% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-01?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 24¢ | 40.2% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 23¢ | 37.3% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 19¢ | 40.3% | WIN | +$4,405 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 28¢ | 39.2% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky HijikataPolymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Jesper de Jong | 18¢ | 36.2% | WIN | +$4,714 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak DjokovicPolymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yibing Wu | 18¢ | 31.6% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna BondarPolymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Anna Bondar | 30¢ | 39.2% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Over | 80¢ | 92% | WIN | +$258 |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Under | 66¢ | 92% | WIN | +$527 |
| Spread: Germany (-2.5)Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Paraguay | 75¢ | 92% | WIN | +$342 |
| Spread: Norway (-1.5)Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Côte dIvoire | 78¢ | 92% | WIN | +$290 |
| Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxPolymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Boston Red Sox | 63¢ | 88.5% | WIN | +$600 |
| Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 71¢ | 92% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 73¢ | 92% | WIN | +$379 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 74¢ | 92% | WIN | +$361 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 77¢ | 92% | WIN | +$307 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-01?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 77¢ | 92% | WIN | +$307 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 78¢ | 92% | WIN | +$290 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 74¢ | 92% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 67¢ | 92% | WIN | +$504 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 73¢ | 92% | WIN | +$379 |
| Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 69¢ | 92% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 60¢ | 91.5% | WIN | +$681 |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | No | 73¢ | 92% | WIN | +$379 |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 72¢ | 92% | WIN | +$399 |
| England vs Congo DR: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Congo DR advances (NO) | 89¢ | 96% | WIN | +$124 |
| England vs Congo DR: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | England advances (YES) | 89¢ | 96% | WIN | +$124 |
| France vs Sweden: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | France advances (YES) | 89¢ | 96% | WIN | +$124 |
| France vs Sweden: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Sweden advances (NO) | 89¢ | 96% | WIN | +$124 |
| Germany vs Paraguay: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Germany advances (YES) | 87¢ | 96% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| Germany vs Paraguay: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Paraguay advances (NO) | 88¢ | 96% | LOSS | -$1,000 |
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Bosnia and Herzegovina advances (NO) | 84¢ | 92.2% | WIN | +$190 |
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | USA advances (YES) | 84¢ | 92.1% | WIN | +$190 |
| Colombia vs Ghana: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Colombia advances (YES) | 80¢ | 90.3% | OPEN | — |
| Colombia vs Ghana: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Ghana advances (NO) | 81¢ | 90.8% | OPEN | — |
| Colombia vs Ghana: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Colombia advances (NO) | 21¢ | 32.3% | OPEN | — |
| Colombia vs Ghana: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Ghana advances (YES) | 20¢ | 30.9% | OPEN | — |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 20¢ | 33.3% | OPEN | — |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 10¢ | 31.8% | OPEN | — |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 24¢ | 37.5% | OPEN | — |
| Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 28¢ | 44.1% | OPEN | — |
| Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?Polymarket · longshot | Yes | 0¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed-longshot | Yes | 1¢ | — | OPEN | — |
| Spread: Colombia (-1.5)Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Ghana | 64¢ | 89.5% | OPEN | — |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?Polymarket · smart-wallet-backed | Yes | 64¢ | 89.5% | OPEN | — |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Argentina advances (YES) | 92¢ | 96% | OPEN | — |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Cape Verde advances (NO) | 92¢ | 96% | OPEN | — |
| Spain vs Austria: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Austria advances (NO) | 87¢ | 94.3% | OPEN | — |
| Spain vs Austria: To AdvanceKalshi · price-only | Spain advances (YES) | 87¢ | 94.2% | OPEN | — |
Scored against resolved Kalshi / Polymarket markets. Flat $1,000 paper stake per pick. Every resolution is checkable at the venue.
The board re-reads the market every few minutes. See what the runes say right now.
Paper & informational only. Not financial or gambling advice.